EMERGENCY RISK REDUCTION

In the last blog, I explained how health care workers and therefore politicians had to do something at the onset of the CoV spread.  The health community had several “shots across the bow” from viral outbreaks in 2003, 2009, 2012, and 2014. Now was their moment.

The initial campaign for adaptive behavior – hand washing, remaining isolated at any flu sign, social distancing, self-isolation for travelers, no touching, etc. – was well founded….and still should be practiced. This is especially true when dealing with the group in which 90% of deaths occur – the elderly and those with weak immune or respiratory systems. These groups should be in complete lockdown.

The other directive is that non-essential businesses be closed. Not only is ‘non-essential’ ambiguous and subjective, but it, along with travel, tourism, and leisure, has immediately put the economies of Canada and the US (and Europe) in historic freefall.  This has definitely kept people at home! The result has been massive unemployment and historic billions of dollars in benefits (trillions in the US), which will take decades to recover, if ever. More on this later.

I humbly think this pendulum is now swinging too far.  The situation is in flux. Data is released daily, and the number of new cases is emphasized. Only mentioned as a footnote is the number of deaths. Could this be because the numbers are relatively small?  And that the morbidity and mortality numbers are overwhelmingly the elderly and those with weak immune or respiratory systems – those which could easily be quarantined and treated.

The data that is emerging is showing that CoV has a high infection rate but a low mortality rate. For instance, you may recall the Diamond Princess cruise ship, where approx. 700 passengers contracted corona. It floated around for weeks in quarantine. End result was that 7 died, and this was an overwhelmingly elderly (65+) group. As importantly, only 50% of passengers showed any symptoms. This is noteworthy, because health authorities speak of the mortality rate at 3%, 5%, 10%….where do these numbers come from? From identified cases with symptoms? What about the 10’s of 1000’s who are asymptomatic? Wuhan, China has revised its mortality estimate from 3% to 1.4%, and more importantly says that only 15% of those testing positive had any symptoms, and only 2-3% of those passed on the disease. Maybe so; maybe not. (Disclaimer: I question all data coming from the Chinese government!)

The lack of virulence is also reflected in the mortality rates among countries. As of this writing, in Canada: 5,655 confirmed cases, 60 deaths….USA, 123, 750 cases, 2,227 deaths (2/3 in NYC alone). That is .01% and .017% respectively. And this is not taking into consideration the totality of asymptomatic carriers.  Once this is added to the denominator of the fraction (remember your 6^th grade math!), the % will reduce even more. In fact, I estimate that it will be on par with the seasonal flu, which by the way, kills an average of 40-50,000 in the US annually. CoV has a long way to go to reach this number, but we will see.

Even confirmed mortality numbers are suspect. NY City has approx. 12,000 deaths per year from respiratory failure.  This was without a CoV outbreak. To date, approx. 1,200 have died from corona, virtually all from respiratory failure. But isn’t it possible that some of the 1,200 died from another cause, although testing positive for CoV? After all, in 2019, no one who died from respiratory failure did so from

CoV, since it did not exist. Or am I being too logical here! Again, with 6^th grade math, numbers subtracted from the numerator of the fraction (deaths) and numbers added to the denominator as all cases (see above), would significantly decrease the mortality percentage from coronavirus.

I concede that, in some metro areas (New York City) and European countries, the pathogen is out of control.

Take Italy as an example. I haven’t lived there, but worked for FAO, an organ of the UN and travelled thru several times. I love Italy and Italians – one of the most elderly populations in Europe.  They are ‘touchy, feely’ — kissing on both cheeks upon greeting. They travel almost daily to the market for fresh bread, meat, fish, vegetables, all in open markets without wrappings. The lifestyle is rife for the spreading of germs. Most of us in Canada and the US do not live this way. Our food is wrapped in plastic, boxed and frozen, and we make a trip to the supermarket, say, once a week.   This less-than-wonderful lifestyle means less germs are transmitted, person to person.

I am unconvinced that Canada and the US need to make draconian decisions based upon CoV numbers coming from countries whose lifestyles are far from our own.  I will discuss these decisions in the next blog. Thanks for reading.

Be well.

Monty