EMERGENCY RISK REDUCTION

In an earlier blog, I mentioned the H1N1 Spanish Flu of 1918-19. CoV has been compared to it. This comes from a lack of knowledge. H1N1 was by far the greatest killer pathogen in recorded history. It killed 1-3% of the world’s population, which today would be 80-240 million people.  The 1918 world population was 1.8 Billion, and H1N1 probably killed over 100 million. It entered the US in late Spring 2018, and by October, H1N1 had killed 200,000 Americans, and the life expectancy had dropped by 12 years. I could go on and on. Coronavirus isn’t even close.

On the news I hear a relentless campaign to keep a lockdown on society to ‘flatten the curve’ but it is based upon emotion and fear, not fact.  Fear such as the Spanish Flu comparison, rather than the fact that the CoV mortality rate is much less than earlier predicted. In the US, original death figures were estimated at 2.2 Million. In the last week of April, death toll is approx. 57,000. (inflated numbers…see my next blog.)   In my province of British Columbia, early death estimates were 22,000 and the premier spoke of the risk of 1% of the population (55,000) dying. On April 28, death toll is 103. I could give many examples.

There’s an emphasis on confirmed cases increasing in number and a lack of emphasis on death figures – and no comparison with rates of increase or decrease compared to previous years. I already acknowledge that CoV is contagious, as is any seasonal influenza. So it’s no surprise that raw numbers are still rising.

At what point will the government release the lockdown? When there are no new cases? This could be next year or 2022! And if the health authorities have their way, it will be!  I understand their passion, but not their rationale.

Is there no analysis as to the cost of this lockdown? First, the health cost. Health is measured in ways other than those contracting coronavirus. Negative health impacts of being house-bound include lack of exercise, missed medical appointments, ignoring of other ailments, poor diet, etc. Mental health from anxiety, depression, claustrophobia, lack of socialization, stress from unemployment and lack of funds, etc.

The other cost is economic. It is unchartered territory with trillions of USD and billions of Canadian dollars being handed out. The money will not be from increased taxes, or a government spending cuts. So it means the money will be printed; which means the national debt is increasing; which means there is an increase in dollars without an increase in productivity; which means inflation; which means an increase in lending cost for everything from large banks to small businesses to student loans; which means an erosion of public and business confidence; which means less private investment; which means a decreased access to capital for businesses; which means less productivity; which means less lower wages or increased unemployment and less taxes to the government; which means less public investment in a myriad of government activities and less of a societal safety net. Maybe you get the picture. It’s an economic tsunami from which I am afraid we will never recover.  At best, we will pass this on to our children, and apologize that our generation chose lower taxes and higher spending, so they will be forced to live with higher taxes and lower spending.

Unfortunately the above rationale will likely fall upon deaf ears from health officials. The goal is the stamp out of this pathogen at any cost – including the cost to our economy and by proxy, our lifestyle. It is ‘group-think’ and anyone in opposition is a pariah.  I am still looking for the strong leader who will courageously stand and declare ‘enough is enough’.

My suggestion: Disaggregate the data, as any good researcher would do. Find the locations, population segments, disease susceptibilities, etc. that need to be isolated. Quarantine them, focusing on reduction of their morbidity and mortality. Encourage those 70+ to remain vigilant in their social distancing, (including neighbors on three sides of me).  Meanwhile, treat the rest of the population as we do with the seasonal flu (such as my 21 year old strapping son who plays college basketball and fights wildfires every summer).  Lift restrictions on those with low probability and open up these arbitrary ‘non-essential’ businesses.  Allow restaurants and coffee shops to reopen. Allow low risk people to mingle. Continue to emphasize personal hygiene and social distancing. Monitor the results. Slowly and deliberately, move forward, including opening schools again.  Get the economy in motion again. Allow the pendulum to swing back to a balance of clinical health and economic health.  This can be done.  It has already cost a fortune in several dimensions of our lives, but it doesn’t have to cost a fortune more.

Thanks for reading. Be well.

Monty