EMERGENCY RISK REDUCTION

 The slow but steady death increase in the “SARS-like” respiratory coronavirus centered in the Middle East should be of concern. But why, when it seems so distant, so remote? After all, the virus is clustered in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Tunisia, and Jordan. A few cases have been confirmed in Britain, France, Italy and Germany.

The virus emerged in April 2012 with two fatal cases in Jordan. At this writing, the World Health Organization reports the global total at 88 cases, with only 45 deaths. Quick math shows a  51% mortality rate, and that is sobering. It is also serious because it’s deceptively slow-moving and spreading. It is also easily misdiagnosed.  This virus starts with a fever and mild cough, affecting the respiratory tract, and eventually progresses to pneumonia   WHO has determined that the virus comes from the same family as the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) coronavirus, which killed nearly 800 people worldwide in 2003.

How significant are 800 deaths out of a worldwide population of 7 Billion? SARS has a physical impact for only about two months.  The economic impact of  those 800 deaths in the People’s Republic of China, and surrounding Asian countries was an estimated reduction of 1.5-2% of the annual Gross Domestic Product (GDP), if those two months were extrapolated into a year.

A 2% GDP reduction is huge for any country! Why, with such a minimal death rate? Basically, for a couple of months in 2003, these countries went into paralysis. Buying and selling slowed. The exchange of goods and services slowed. Commerce slowed. Interaction between people slowed.

All of us have seen these pictures of citizens wearing masks, whether during SARS or H1N1, or maybe we did ourselves. There is no criticism here. The catalyst was fear. Fear of the unknown. Fear from having incomplete knowledge of the pathogen and its risks. This is where the disaster management and medical communities can assist, in providing awareness, guidance, risks, and preparation for this or other potential disaster events.

In disaster management, we often speak of two broad categories of natural disasters: One that forces people from their homes, such as a flood or earthquake. The  other confines people within their homes, such as a severe winter snowstorm. The threat of a pandemic, such as SARS, H1N1, or this coronavirus is a “confining” event. It is an invisible threat. Because everyone is suspect, we reduce our interaction with others — at grocery stores, restaurants, coffee shops, school, work, sporting events, church, synagogue or mosque — at literally every venue. Quite honestly, at 2% GDP reduction would only be the beginning, especially during a prolonged or expansive outbreak.

Hopefully this coronavirus will disappear, like so many have mysteriously done, including SARS. Maybe, similar to the very deadly Ebola virus, the ‘host’ will die before the pathogen can spread rapidly. The WHO has stated that we ‘dodged a bullet’ with the atypical H1N1 virus of 2009. Unfortunately we can’t count on this happening again and again. The development of a focused vaccine takes months, because there are so many sub-types to viruses. Meanwhile the spread of a virus can happen at the “speed of light” in today’s mobile and global society.

A present concern is the spread of this coronavirus from its cluster in Saudi Arabia due to the holiday of Ramadan, the Islamic holy month. Millions of Muslim pilgrims are pilgrimaging to Mecca for the Haj. Containment of the virus will be very challenging, if not impossible.

Our lives involve risk-taking. We do this every day. We can’t eliminate all risks. We can only reduce them. This is a reason that my company is called Risk Reduction Strategies. If requested, I can assist you in taking appropriate precautions, in being informed, and in being better prepared for hazards.  Thanks for reading.