EMERGENCY RISK REDUCTION

Ebola is back in the news, and rightly so. The name hits our emotions hard: Death. Fear. Doom. No cure; no escape. To date in late July, the mortality rate is pushing 800.  The great relief for us in North America is that these deaths are in isolated, distant countries – Liberia, Sierra Leone, Guinea. This faze will go away soon. But is this such a relief? If so. why in the news? What’s the big deal?

The big deal is that Ebola shouldn’t be killing so many. The great irony about this pathogen is such an efficient killer. It kills its host before the spread, the link, can continue. The disease ‘self-regulates’, which is godsend to pathologists — who haven’t a clue as to a treatment for Ebola.  At least this is a characteristic of the ‘strain’ that we’ve seen in the past. A few hundred dead in a couple of villages, and then it’s over. But this number of 800 and growing is very disturbing. Is this a bit of a ‘reassortment’, a mutation of the classic Ebola that somehow allows to the host to spread its contagion before succumbing?

An Ebola pandemic would rock the world, not only with population loss, but with economic impact. History provides guidance: SARS, the Black Plague, the Spanish Flu, etc. Social interaction slows down or stops. Commerce slows or stops. Crowds in malls? Forget it. Casual visits to the grocery? Isn’t going to happen. Tradesmen house calls? No way.  Fear of exposure to someone, anyone who is an ‘Ebola carrier’ would cause us to slam our doors. No one in; no one out.

The latest or some Western countries is to request (i.e. invoke) quarantine for anyone susceptible to exposure when traveling or working in these west African countries. This is a noble gesture, but we know that in today’s shrinking world, quarantining of anyone, anywhere, is extremely difficult.  For example, the 1917 Spanish Flu, which circumnavigated the globe in a few months (and plane passenger travel was almost non-existent). Imagine 2014. A similar disease could reach most major populations in several hours, and certainly in a couple of days. And remember, the Spanish Flu killed more than died in WW1.

It is good that Ebola can only be spread thru bodily fluids or close contact, rather than general exposure such as an influenza. However, particulate in the air hasn’t been ruled out. In essence, pathologists don’t know, or at least they aren’t telling.

So what do we do? We limit our exposure, and become vigilant about cleanliness. And we prepare to survive the first wave. Then we reassess. We have ‘shelter in place’ resources for several weeks. This sounds like a lot, but we will be on our own. This includes possible lack of water and electricity. Remember, these utilities require operators and servicers, which simply won’t happen in this level of a disease. Why blame them for not reporting to work, and taking that risk! So the first step if for us to relax, breath deeply, close our eyes, and imagine all that we need if we’re in our residence, but without water or electricity, and septic, by the way. Then we prepare accordingly. We consider a worst-case scenario. And hope it does not come true.

As an emergency manager, this isn’t a lot to go on. “I don’t want to sound doomsday”. However, I personally believe that one of the most challenging events to prepare for is an ‘invisible’ disaster, such as a pandemic. Again, our emotion of fear kicks in. But also, our emotion of survival will surface. This latest Ebola outbreak should prompt us to prepare now – so that we will both survive and thrive.

Thanks for reading.