EMERGENCY RISK REDUCTION

As I try to follow some of the trends in the world, especially in the context of emergencies, I see a disturbing, slowly-heating trend. There’s a growing group of people that want to see the earth’s population reduced. Various reasons: It may be environmental – the planet can’t support or sustain this large a number of people. It may be ideological – eliminating those who don’t share our beliefs. It may be power – maybe a nefarious group that can only gain control with lesser numbers. We’re not talking about a few thousand less people, such as a large conventional terrorist attack like Sept. 11.  I am taking about maybe by 1/3, or billions. How could this happen? Very simple:  a virus.

Maybe you’ve read of the Black Plague in the 14^th century, estimated to kill 1/3 of present day Europe’s population. Or the 1918 Spanish flu, that killed more than died in combat during WWI. These are non-intentional disasters, now written in the history books. But I am speaking of an “intentional’ disaster – one that is planned and executed (read released) methodically.

I don’t have to mention the groups to whom we generally shake our heads as “crazies” when we hear of an incident the news. The fact is that some of these groups are well funded, with leaders or followers who have the ability to engage in bio-terrorism.  Can you imagine an act of terrorism that kills not tens, not hundreds, not thousands, but millions – potentially hundreds of millions.

Yes, I am speaking of a virus strain that is altered.  It could kill hundreds of millions in the world today.  Maybe you have heard that a few years ago, the human genome was mapped. This was an amazing accomplishment, and useful for good. Researchers can dig deeper, understand gene therapy, and develop disease-altering solutions. However, the opposite could also be true. A couple of PhD’s in a lab withw nefarious means could develop a strain that doesn’t serve humanity, but rather is a tool of destruction.  Widespread destruction.

The subtle irony is that some exotic but newsworthy viruses are easiest to manipulate and use. We hear occasionally of MARS (Middle East Respiratory Syndrome), a pneumonia-like virus, that is spreading.  There seems to be no natural resistance. It is different from SARS (yet another pathogen) because MERS is caused by another subtype of the virus.  Ebola is back in the news.  The only saving grace of the Ebola virus is that the host is killed so quickly. There’s simply not enough time for the virus to spread. But can you imagine a slow-emerging Ebola.  This could mow down populations. There is now a Porcine (swine) virus that is killing tens of thousands of pigs. Researchers know that swine illnesses can easily be transferred humans through ‘re-assortment’ or mutation, but with little human resistance. The same is true with Avian Flu strains, which caused the 2009 pandemic scare. The examples are numerous.

I have long-since thought that conventional methods of terrorism are antiquated in the 21st century. Yes, groups can make political statements and disrupt populations. The coverage may be of a bombing on the other side of the world that is disturbing and spectacular, such as blasts on a bus in Egypt or a café in Tel Aviv, sickingly killing and maiming civilians.  Or less conventional, such as the pressure cooker at the Boston marathon last year, or planes as bombs at the World Trade Center.

This kind of explosive terrorism will continue, but I think the stage is set for an increase in bio-terrorism.  Too many small groups have the means, motive, and opportunity in this decade. When this happens, I am afraid that the world as we know it will change forever. We can become knowledgeable. We can become motivated to streamline our lifestyles. And we can be better prepared, as is covered in other sections of this website.